Fragility Looms Over US-Iran Ceasefire as Deadline Approaches Amid Stalled Talks

Diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran have reached a complete standstill, with no visible progress toward extending the ceasefire that is entering its second month, raising serious concerns about its collapse before the Monday deadline.

Negotiation Stalemate and Core Disputes

A senior official in the US administration, who declined to be named due to the extreme sensitivity of the issue, confirmed that the current situation between Washington and Tehran is characterized by a total halt, noting that he had received no news of an imminent agreement even after Friday afternoon. The source clarified that the issue is not about the proximity or distance of positions, but revolves around Tehran's readiness to return to the negotiating table and agree to a final settlement, which has not occurred so far according to his statement.

Core disagreements center on the fate of globally frozen Iranian assets, alongside the intense dispute over navigation freedom in the Strait of Hormuz and the naval blockade imposed by the United States. Reports indicate that Iranian negotiators share the same perspective regarding the continued stagnation in talks aimed at reinstating the temporary agreement signed in France last month.

Geopolitical Challenges and Economic Pressures

Political experts believe that maintaining the 'ceasefire for blockade' model may be the optimal temporary choice for both parties, as each seeks to avoid direct military escalation while the other refuses to make fundamental concessions. Former US Ambassador James Jeffrey noted that each side believes time is on their side, making parties prefer the status quo over the risks of war or major concessions.

Field Escalation and Psychological Factors

Tensions intensified after two oil tankers were attacked by drones in the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, undermining the stability of this sensitive maritime passage. Iran demanded the lifting of sanctions and permission to levy fees on passing ships, while Washington firmly rejected this proposal, considering that continuous threats might push Tehran to strengthen its negotiating position rather than break.