The Strait of Hormuz Battle: Who Controls It Between Iran and the United States Amid Shifting Oil Navigation

Recent navigational data indicates a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran gradually losing its grip to the United States. Commercial vessels no longer fear transit; instead, they prefer safe routes thanks to effective US naval patrols in the region.

Transit Details and Evasion Tactics

Kepler, a firm specializing in satellite-based shipment tracking, revealed that over 80% of vessels transiting in the past two weeks utilized the internationally recognized Omani route. This path, strongly opposed by Iran, has become the safe haven for tankers avoiding potential attacks on northern Iranian coasts. Despite Tehran's threats and attempts to levy transit fees, most companies have disabled the trackers on their Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to evade Iranian monitoring. This practice, known as 'dark shipping', has slipped past some commercial tracking firms, yet the United States retains the capability to monitor every movement in the strait with precision.

Geopolitical Context and Figures

A month ago, traffic via the Omani route was virtually nonexistent, but the situation has changed drastically with US security guarantees. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that oil flow reached approximately 15 million barrels per day, a figure nearing pre-war levels that exceeded 20 million barrels. This relative openness negatively impacts Iran's ability to impose fees or disrupt trade, especially after the US-Iran memorandum expired without Tehran successfully regaining practical control. Analysts argue the US goal is deterrence rather than absolute control, while Iran struggles to maintain an image of strength despite losing practical hegemony.